TL;DR
Turn quiet afternoons into listening time
- Thousands of audiobooks, podcasts and originals
- Listen on your phone, tablet or Echo — also offline
- Cancel anytime
An international team led by Northumbria University developed and tested a five-factor dementia risk score using data from more than 11,000 older adults across seven countries. The simple, conversation-based tool is intended to help research studies and trials identify higher-risk participants in low- and middle-income countries; it is not a routine screening test.
An international research team led by Northumbria University has developed and tested a five-factor dementia risk score designed for low- and middle-income countries, where about 60% of people living with dementia reside. The researchers say the conversation-based tool is intended to support research and clinical trial recruitment, not to serve as a routine screening test.
The model was built and tested using data from more than 11,000 older adults at seven sites in China, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, Mexico and Peru. The study, published in the American Journal of Epidemiology, reports an accuracy score of 0.75, above the 0.70 level the report describes as generally regarded as clinically useful.
The score uses five factors that can be assessed through a conversation with an older person and, where appropriate, a family member or carer: age, social engagement, physical activity, high blood pressure and a noticeable change in managing money. Each factor contributes to a total from zero to nine. The researchers report that a score of zero corresponds to about a 1% chance of developing dementia within three years, while a score of nine corresponds to nearly 19%.
The team says the approach does not require blood tests, brain scans or specialist equipment. The study was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research using UK Government international development funding, with additional support from Dementia Australia.
A Research Tool for Underserved Settings
The score addresses a gap in dementia research: many existing prediction tools were developed using data from high-income countries, and the report says they have transferred poorly to other settings. A practical model designed around information that can be gathered in a conversation could help researchers identify participants for studies in places where specialist tests and equipment may be less accessible.
This matters because an estimated 60% of the world’s more than 57 million people with dementia live in low- and middle-income countries. Better representation in research could help future prevention studies and trials include populations whose circumstances were not reflected in earlier models. The score itself, however, does not establish that any of its factors cause dementia, nor does it provide a diagnosis.
Products Worth Considering
Levoit EverestAir-P Smart Air Purifier for Large Rooms
Levoit Vital 200S-P Smart Air Purifier for Large Rooms up to 1875 ft²
Oral-B iO Series 3 Rechargeable Electric Toothbrush for Adults, Black
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
How the Five Factors Were Chosen
The five inputs cover both health and everyday circumstances. Age is described as the strongest single predictor, with risk rising meaningfully from 70 and more steeply from 80. Social engagement considers living arrangements and contact with friends, family or community groups; physical activity includes movement through work, leisure and daily tasks such as walking or household work.
The remaining factors are high blood pressure and difficulty managing money. The report notes that uncontrolled hypertension can damage blood vessels supplying the brain and may go undiagnosed in lower-income settings. A carer or family member can be asked whether a person’s ability to manage finances has noticeably changed, which the researchers describe as a possible early everyday sign of cognitive change.
Researchers involved in the work have stressed that this is a step toward more inclusive research, rather than a finished tool for every population. The seven study sites were in Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia; the supplied report does not describe validation in several other regions with large populations.
“This model is a step towards changing that. It is simple, it is built for the settings where it is needed most, and it gives researchers a practical way to find the people who should be the focus of future studies and trials.”
— Dr. Eduwin Pakpahan, Applied Statistics and Data Science Research Group, Northumbria University
Where Validation Is Still Needed
The reported testing covers seven sites in seven countries, not every population or health system in low- and middle-income countries. The researchers are calling for further validation, particularly in South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Until that work is done, it is unclear how well the score will perform in those regions or in communities with different social and health patterns.
The supplied report does not provide details on how the score performs across individual countries or population subgroups, or how it compares with other tools on specific measures beyond the reported 0.75 accuracy score. It also does not set out a plan for routine clinical use. The researchers’ stated purpose is research recruitment, not population-wide screening or diagnosis.
Further Regional Testing Needed
The next step identified by the researchers is to validate the model in regions not included in the current study, especially South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Such testing would help establish whether the score is useful across a wider range of populations and local settings.
For now, the team presents the score as a potential low-cost way for research studies and clinical trials to find older adults at elevated risk. Whether it will be adapted for other purposes, or how it might be integrated into local research and health services, has not been established in the supplied report.
Key Questions
What is the new dementia risk score for?
It is designed to help researchers and clinical trials identify older people at elevated risk in low- and middle-income countries. The researchers do not present it as a routine screening test for the general population.
What factors does the score use?
The five factors are age, social engagement, physical activity, high blood pressure and a noticeable change in managing money. Information can be gathered through a conversation, with a family member or carer involved where appropriate.
How was the model tested?
The researchers used data from more than 11,000 older adults across seven sites in China, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, Mexico and Peru. The study reports an accuracy score of 0.75.
Does a high score diagnose dementia?
No. The score estimates the chance of developing dementia within three years; it is not a diagnosis. The researchers describe it as a tool for research and trial recruitment, not routine screening.
Where does the team say more testing is needed?
The researchers call for validation in South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa, regions not covered by the reported study sites.
Source: news-medical.net
